<?xml version="1.0" encoding="UTF-8"?><xml><records><record><source-app name="Biblio" version="6.x">Drupal-Biblio</source-app><ref-type>47</ref-type><contributors><authors><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Jaime Balaguer</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Guillermo Cordero</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Rosa Navarrete</style></author></authors></contributors><titles><title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Religiosity and Left-Right Self-placement in Europe. Three Decades of Evolution</style></title><secondary-title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">1st European Conference on Comparative Electoral Research</style></secondary-title></titles><keywords><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Europe</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Ideology</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Religiosity</style></keyword></keywords><dates><year><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">2011</style></year></dates><urls><related-urls><url><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">http://true-european-voter.eu/sites/default/files/Religiosity_Ideology_November2011.pdf</style></url></related-urls></urls><pub-location><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Sofia (Bulgaria)</style></pub-location><abstract><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Any analysis of the influence of ideology in politics should take into account its links to religiosity. But, is this relation maintained over time? On what individual or collective factors depends? In this paper we answer these questions using a large sample of 33 European countries from the European Values Study (EVS) and the Party Manifestos Project. We do so from a longitudinal perspective, paying attention to their development since the early 1980’s until the late 2000’s, considering a complex religious factor defined by five different dimensions, and from a comparative focus, evaluating the importance of the context in the selected countries.</style></abstract></record><record><source-app name="Biblio" version="6.x">Drupal-Biblio</source-app><ref-type>47</ref-type><contributors><authors><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Belchior, Ana Maria</style></author></authors></contributors><titles><title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Explaining Left-Right Party Congruence across European Party Systems: A Test of Micro, Meso and Macro Level Models</style></title><secondary-title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">1st European Conference on Comparative Electoral Research</style></secondary-title></titles><keywords><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">congruence</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Europe</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">left-right</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">MP candidates</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">political parties</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">voters</style></keyword></keywords><dates><year><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Submitted</style></year></dates><urls><related-urls><url><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">http://true-european-voter.eu/sites/default/files/Explaining_Left-Right_Party_Congruence.pdf</style></url></related-urls></urls><pub-location><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Sofia</style></pub-location><abstract><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Empirical studies on representation have been based mainly on the descriptive analysis of levels of political or ideological congruence between MPs and voters. Very few studies focus on explaining congruence and those which have done so do not explore all the explanatory dimensions. This article contributes to filling this gap by testing whether three theoretical models can explain left-right congruence among European parties. These models explore causality at the micro or individual level (the characteristics of voters and MPs), the meso level (party characteristics), and the macro or system level (party system and institutional characteristics). Based on data from the PIREDEU project, the study examines the party systems of the 27 countries of the European Union with reference to the 2009 European Parliament elections. The findings reveal that MP-voter congruence is best explained at the party level and by key MP (candidates) characteristics. </style></abstract></record><record><source-app name="Biblio" version="6.x">Drupal-Biblio</source-app><ref-type>47</ref-type><contributors><authors><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Diana Elena Burlacu</style></author></authors></contributors><titles><title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">The Consequences of Corruption on Electoral Behaviour. Leader vs. Party Effects? Do the Voters Choose the Lesser Evil?</style></title><secondary-title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">1st European Conference on Comparative Electoral Research</style></secondary-title></titles><keywords><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">corruption</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">leader effects</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">multilevel modeling</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">party effects</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">political trust</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">voting behaviour</style></keyword></keywords><dates><year><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">2011</style></year></dates><urls><related-urls><url><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">http://true-european-voter.eu/sites/default/files/DianaB_Sofia_paper.pdf</style></url><url><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">http://true-european-voter.eu/sites/default/files/Burlacu_Leader_effects.pdf</style></url></related-urls></urls><pub-location><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Sofia</style></pub-location><abstract><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">This paper examines corruption’s consequences on electoral behaviour: whether and how people adopt their vote decisions/strategies to an increased level of corruption. The focus is on four key factors people include in their vote decision: ideological positions, government performance, leader and party evaluations, and how political corruption affects their role in voting decision. I expect corruption to tack leaders’ attraction on and strengthen the marginal effect of their evaluation on vote choice. An increased perceived level of corruption creates a good opportunity for popular leaders to attract more votes in contexts where future promises or past performances do not manifest themselves clearly enough to factor in vote decisions. In these conditions, leaders’ evaluations shall outplay other voting behaviour determinants in environments with high indices of corruption. These contexts foster a sense of mistrust beneficial to popular leaders who engage in a trust-repair process and look competent and reliable. Voters choose those political actors who appear as the most credentialed and trustable among the corrupted ones when they face the “choosing the lesser of two evils” dilemma. </style></abstract></record><record><source-app name="Biblio" version="6.x">Drupal-Biblio</source-app><ref-type>47</ref-type><contributors><authors><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Chadjipadelis, Theodore</style></author></authors></contributors><titles><title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Parties, Candidates, Issues: electoral competition revisited</style></title><secondary-title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">1st European Conference on Comparative Electoral Research</style></secondary-title></titles><keywords><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">electoral competition</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Proximity coefficients</style></keyword></keywords><dates><year><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">2011</style></year></dates><urls><related-urls><url><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">http://true-european-voter.eu/sites/default/files/Parties, Candidates, Issues, 01122011.pdf</style></url></related-urls></urls><pub-location><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Sofia</style></pub-location><abstract><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Parties, Candidates, Issues: electoral competition revisited

The partisan competition is part of the operation of political parties and issues ranging from ideology to public policy choices. The political platforms of parties and the selection of their candidates compose dimensions of electoral competition and used by political parties to enhance or maintain their position in the electoral process. This analysis examines the dynamics and peculiarities of the electoral competition and partisan strategies under the influence in shaping the opinions of citizens.

The theoretical and methodological approach is based on the triangular interaction approach of electoral competition. A central research question is to study the similarities and dissimilarities as well as the interdependencies and interactions within this triangular approach across different levels of elections and over time and to evaluate, analyze and interpret them towards a unified approach in voting behaviour.

These factors however do not only have independent main effects. Thus, their relationship can be represented in an interacting system of axes where each axis with each other forming an angle. In the case of representation using only main effects, the position of every citizen could be described by defining a point level with the main effects, while the area of intersection of these levels would set the area which is defined as &quot;public opinion&quot;. This approach generalizes the approach of one-dimensional mapping description (such as one-dimensional representation of the axis &quot;Right-Left&quot; has been introduced by Downs). Correspondingly, Nolan proposes two-dimensional imaging at two lines adding to the axis of the economic dimension axis &quot;authoritarian-liberal.&quot;

To simplify the above we propose a schematic representation of the relationship between the three main factors, with a triangle representing the tops of each one of the factors and their relationship to the corresponding side of the triangle. In this representation, each vertex can be projected on the opposite side, turning a three-dimensional problem in two-dimensional, practically connecting each vertex (actor) when interacting with the other two vertices.

We concern with the study of the three vertices of the triangle (parties, persons, themes) and their interactions. This relationship (and the political competition) develops also during the electoral cycle with reference to issues of functioning of institutions, powers of intervention of formal and informal collective political subjects (parties, pressure groups, factions, horizontal and vertical organizations). The analysis and presentation are based in  the data collected (about 30.000 people) in the “electronic voting consultant” (VAA)  used in regional elections in 2010 in Greece.
</style></abstract></record><record><source-app name="Biblio" version="6.x">Drupal-Biblio</source-app><ref-type>47</ref-type><contributors><authors><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Mikolaj Czesnik</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Michal Kotnarowski</style></author></authors></contributors><titles><title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Voter Turnout Stability in Comparative Perspective: Over-reporting as Methodological Challenge</style></title><secondary-title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">1st European Conference on Comparative Electoral Research</style></secondary-title></titles><dates><year><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">2011</style></year></dates><urls><related-urls><url><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">http://true-european-voter.eu/sites/default/files/Sofia Voter Turnout Stability in Comparative Perspective.pdf</style></url></related-urls></urls><pub-location><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Sofia</style></pub-location></record><record><source-app name="Biblio" version="6.x">Drupal-Biblio</source-app><ref-type>47</ref-type><contributors><authors><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Ruth Dassonneville</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Marc Hooghe</style></author></authors></contributors><titles><title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Mapping Electoral Volatility in Europe. An analysis of trends in electoral volatility in European democracies since 1945.</style></title><secondary-title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">1st European Conference on Comparative Electoral Research</style></secondary-title></titles><keywords><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Electoral Volatility</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Europe</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Pedersen Index</style></keyword></keywords><dates><year><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">2011</style></year></dates><urls><related-urls><url><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">http://true-european-voter.eu/sites/default/files/Mapping electoral volatility_Dassonneville_Hooghe.pdf</style></url></related-urls></urls><pub-location><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Sofia (Bulgaria)</style></pub-location><abstract><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Electoral volatility is generally believed to be increasing in West European democracies, while the opposite trend allegedly can be found in countries that experienced the transition to democracy in a more recent period. Empirical evidence on these trends and their significance, however, is rather scarce. Starting from this gap in the literature we aim to disentangle patterns of volatility across Europe. First we show that depending on the period of democratization, electoral volatility evolves in a different manner in various European country groups. The results demonstrate that there is no significant trend in volatility in Western Europe, with the exception of some smaller countries, but we do find a significant decrease in volatility in Southern and Central and Eastern Europe. Moreover we show that the differences in electoral volatility between Western Europe and Central and Eastern European countries cannot be explained fully by different lengths of experience with democracy or different economic situations. What exactly does explain the different development in Central and Eastern Europe needs to be investigated further.</style></abstract></record><record><source-app name="Biblio" version="6.x">Drupal-Biblio</source-app><ref-type>47</ref-type><contributors><authors><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">De Angelis, Andrea</style></author></authors></contributors><titles><title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Between a Rock and a Hard Place: Dealing with the Economic Explanation of Voting Choice</style></title><secondary-title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">1st European Conference on Comparative Electoral Research</style></secondary-title></titles><keywords><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">accountability</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Economic voting</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">expectations</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">party competence</style></keyword></keywords><dates><year><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">2011</style></year></dates><urls><related-urls><url><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">http://true-european-voter.eu/sites/default/files/Between a Rock and a Hard Place.pdf</style></url></related-urls></urls><pub-location><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Sofia</style></pub-location><abstract><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Economic voting theory provides an important rationale to representative
governments. However, the economic explanation of voting choice find itself
between a rock and a hard place: the retrospective/sanctioning approach on
the one hand, and the prospective/selection one on the other. This paper
suggest that the integration of these two perspectives might lead to a superior
solution, and provides a simple model of Selection and Updating. The empirical assessment is made with reference to two political elections held in Italy
(2006) and in the UK (2005). Evidence is found for the British case, while the
Italian one remains empirically puzzling.</style></abstract></record><record><source-app name="Biblio" version="6.x">Drupal-Biblio</source-app><ref-type>47</ref-type><contributors><authors><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Cees van der Eijk</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Michael Marsh</style></author></authors></contributors><titles><title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Comparing non-ipsative measures of party support </style></title><secondary-title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">1st European Conference on Comparative Electoral Research</style></secondary-title></titles><keywords><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">measurement</style></keyword></keywords><dates><year><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">2011</style></year></dates><urls><related-urls><url><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">http://true-european-voter.eu/sites/default/files/CvdE-MM ECCER paper Sofia 2011.pdf</style></url></related-urls></urls><pub-location><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Sofia</style></pub-location><abstract><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Non-ipsative measures of party preference (preference ratings for each of the parties of a political system) have become common in election studies. They exist in different forms, such as thermometer ratings or feeling scores, likes and dislikes scores, or choice propensities. Usually only one of these is included in a single survey, which makes it difficult to assess the relative merits of each. The Irish National Election Study 2002 (INES2002) contained three different batteries of non-ipsative party preferences, a feature which allows a systematic comparison between them. This paper investigates some properties of these different indicators. We focus mainly on the relationship between non-ipsative preferences and actual choices. This relationship is particularly revealing in a STV electoral system that allows voters to cast multiple ordered votes for candidates from different parties. Additionally, we investigate the latent structure of each of the batteries of party preferences and the relationships between them.
	We conclude that the three instruments are not interchangeable, that they measure different kinds of preferences. If the purpose is to study electoral choice and the process leading up to electoral choice, then the propensity to vote for a party is to be preferred over thermometer or feeling scores, and over likes/dislikes scores. 
</style></abstract></record><record><source-app name="Biblio" version="6.x">Drupal-Biblio</source-app><ref-type>47</ref-type><contributors><authors><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Falkenhagen, Frédéric</style></author></authors></contributors><titles><title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Accounting for national tradition in data collection when creating an international database</style></title><secondary-title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">1st European Conference on Comparative Electoral Research</style></secondary-title></titles><dates><year><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">2011</style></year></dates><urls><related-urls><url><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">http://true-european-voter.eu/sites/default/files/Database.pdf</style></url><url><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">http://true-european-voter.eu/sites/default/files/national tradition.ppt</style></url></related-urls></urls><pub-location><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Sofia</style></pub-location><abstract><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">This paper aims at giving an overview of different European traditions in questionnaire design
and data documentation and their implications for international comparative research.
First the traditions of questionnaire development and revision will be assessed in four national
contexts.
After this overview this paper will more specifically analyse three typical cases of
international subjects rendered in national questionnaires from the most static to the freest.
Finally it will turn to the documentation of original data collection and their differing
traditions, their usefulness and dangers in secondary use with a special focus on the risks to
secondary analysts.
It will also briefly take an outlook into the long term trends and practices in documentation
and compare the recent efforts undertaken in international projects like the ESS to improve
documentation.</style></abstract></record><record><source-app name="Biblio" version="6.x">Drupal-Biblio</source-app><ref-type>47</ref-type><contributors><authors><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Falkenhagen, Frédéric</style></author></authors></contributors><titles><title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Strategies for transnational comparison of secondary aspects: a case study</style></title><secondary-title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">1st European Conference on Comparative Electoral Research</style></secondary-title></titles><dates><year><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">2011</style></year></dates><urls><related-urls><url><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">http://true-european-voter.eu/sites/default/files/Secondary aspects.pdf</style></url><url><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">http://true-european-voter.eu/sites/default/files/secondary aspects.ppt</style></url></related-urls></urls><pub-location><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Sofia</style></pub-location><abstract><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">This paper aims at outlining a strategy for comparing secondary aspects in international
comparative research based on national election studies (or similar sources). Secondary
aspects encompass all variables that are not central to the basic research, from control
variables to components of lateral or dismissed models. This paper retraces the strategy used
in operationalizing an indicator for authoritarianism on the basis of a total of 16 studies
covering four party cases (Vlaams Blok, Scottish National Party, Plaid Cymru, Christlich
Soziale Union in Bayern) in three countries (Belgium, United Kingdom and Germany) and
over a decade of inquiry (1991-2003).
The paper will first put the research situation into perspective before identifying the distinct
challenges that arose through variation between national questionnaires and within the
national questionnaires over time. It will then focus on the retrieved data structure and their
anticipated proprieties before elaborating the chosen path to ensure comparability. Specific
Multiple Correspondence Analysis was chosen as the method of analysis and its results will
be presented in some detail. Finally the relevance for other situations will be assessed.</style></abstract></record><record><source-app name="Biblio" version="6.x">Drupal-Biblio</source-app><ref-type>47</ref-type><contributors><authors><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Mark Franklin</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Lorenzo De Sio</style></author></authors></contributors><titles><title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Disentabgling components of PTV measures, with an application to the EES 2009</style></title><secondary-title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">ECCER</style></secondary-title></titles><keywords><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">European Election Study 2009</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">hierarchical modeling</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">party support</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">turnout</style></keyword></keywords><dates><year><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Submitted</style></year></dates><urls><related-urls><url><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">http://true-european-voter.eu/sites/default/files/Franklin and DeSio.pdf</style></url></related-urls></urls><pub-location><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Sofia</style></pub-location><abstract><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Conventional analyses of turnout and party support treat the question of why people vote separately from the question why they support a certain political party. Yet it is most unlikely that voters themselves distinguish the two processes. People vote for a party, they do not vote at random. In this paper we suggest a framework for addressing the relationship between the two questions. To what extent do features of individual-level party support contribute to our understanding of turnout? Is it meaningful to attempt the development of a unified model that accounts for both turnout and party choice simultaneously? Our general intuition is that having a distinct preference for one party over all others, and pronouncing oneself likely to vote for that party, will not only largely determine which party is voted for but also help to determine whether someone votes at all. Our approach seeks to analyze propensity to vote questions in the context of a multi-level model that permits us to isolate factors that influence party support at one level of analysis and factors that influence turnout at a higher level of analysis.</style></abstract></record><record><source-app name="Biblio" version="6.x">Drupal-Biblio</source-app><ref-type>47</ref-type><contributors><authors><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Diego Garzia</style></author></authors></contributors><titles><title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">The Rise of Party/Leader Identification in Western Europe</style></title><secondary-title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">1st European Conference on Comparative Electoral Research</style></secondary-title></titles><keywords><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Comparative Politics</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Party Identification</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Political Leaders</style></keyword></keywords><dates><year><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">2011</style></year></dates><urls><related-urls><url><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">http://true-european-voter.eu/sites/default/files/The Rise of Party-Leader Identification in Western Europe.pdf</style></url></related-urls></urls><pub-location><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Sofia</style></pub-location><abstract><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">This paper investigates the attitudinal drivers of partisanship in Western Europe, focusing in particular on the role exerted by voters’ assessments of party leaders’ personality. The cross-sectional analysis is performed on pooled national election study data from four established parliamentary democracies in Europe (Britain, Germany, Italy, and The Netherlands). Results highlight the growing statistical association between leader evaluations and voters’ feelings of partisan attachment throughout the last three decades. Further analyses of selected panel data provide evidence for a causal interpretation in which voters’ evaluation of party leaders plays a crucial role in shaping their partisanship. The discussion points to the relevance of these findings for electoral research.</style></abstract></record><record><source-app name="Biblio" version="6.x">Drupal-Biblio</source-app><ref-type>47</ref-type><contributors><authors><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Diego Garzia</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">De Angelis, Andrea</style></author></authors></contributors><titles><title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Partisanship, leader evaluations, and the vote: Breaking the new iron triangle in electoral research</style></title><secondary-title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">1st European Conference on Comparative Electoral Research</style></secondary-title></titles><keywords><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Comparative Politics</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Leader Evaluations</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Party Identification</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Research Methods</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Voting Behavior</style></keyword></keywords><dates><year><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">2011</style></year></dates><urls><related-urls><url><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">http://true-european-voter.eu/sites/default/files/Partisanship, leader evaluations, and the vote.pdf</style></url></related-urls></urls><pub-location><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Sofia</style></pub-location><abstract><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">This paper provides an empirical assessment of the causal structure underlying the core dependent variable of electoral research (e.g., the vote) and two of its most notable predictors (e.g., party identification and leader evaluations). A critical review of traditional models of the vote highlights the need to account for the reciprocal relationship between the main predictors as well as for the potential feedback from the dependent variable. Making use of pre/post election surveys from two established parliamentary democracies in Western Europe (Britain and Italy), the empirical analysis provide evidence for a strong effect of behavior on attitudes. However, past behavior seems to exert its effect mainly on partisan attitudes, whereas party leader evaluations appear only slightly affected. The analysis also provides preliminary evidence for the existence of significant indirect effects traveling from leader evaluations to the vote through party identification. Evidence for the existence of the reverse channel (e.g., party identification through leader evaluations) appears weaker.</style></abstract></record><record><source-app name="Biblio" version="6.x">Drupal-Biblio</source-app><ref-type>47</ref-type><contributors><authors><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Jastramskis, Mazvydas</style></author></authors></contributors><titles><title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Learning the Economic Vote at Local Elections:  Case of Lithuania, 1995-2011</style></title><secondary-title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">1st European Conference on Comparative Electoral Research</style></secondary-title></titles><keywords><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">change(s) in votes</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Economic voting,</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">local (municipal) elections</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">mayor parties</style></keyword></keywords><dates><year><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">2011</style></year></dates><urls><related-urls><url><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">http://true-european-voter.eu/sites/default/files/Mazvydas Jastramskis Learning economic vote at local elections.pdf</style></url><url><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">http://true-european-voter.eu/sites/default/files/Mazvydas Jastramskis Learning economic vote at local elections.ppt</style></url></related-urls></urls><pub-location><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Sofia (Bulgaria)</style></pub-location><abstract><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">This paper argues that economic voting is not limited to the first-order elections and also can be observed in the local elections (usually considered as second-order). Though local governments do not have power to shape the macro-economic policy of the state, they may have some instruments to influence the well-being of their regions. Moreover, voters may perceive them as accountable for the worsening/improving state of economy in the region and punish/reward (vote for/against) them in local elections on basis of the economic trends. Lithuania appears to be a quite interesting case to test these theoretical arguments. Party identification and cleavages are quite weak here: therefore economic voting can be expected to provide at least some explanation of voting (it should not be shadowed by other social factors). Six local elections (to municipal councils) were held in Lithuania since the transition to democracy: first ones in 1995 and last ones in 2011. While controlling for the other important political-contextual factors this paper strives to compare the impact of economic voting at Lithuania’s municipal elections across the time (in five separate periods). Results of empirical analysis reveal that Lithuanians are learning the economic vote, unemployment being more significant (as a factor explaining changes in votes for the dominant parties in the municipal councils) in more recent period than in the first several elections. Referendum effect is also observed: parties that belong to the national government parties are punished more in the times of economic downturn.</style></abstract></record><record><source-app name="Biblio" version="6.x">Drupal-Biblio</source-app><ref-type>47</ref-type><contributors><authors><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Kalinov, Krassimir B</style></author></authors></contributors><titles><title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">NON-RESPONSE - THE CURSE OF THE PRE-ELECTORAL AND ELECTORAL SURVEYS</style></title><secondary-title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">1st European Conference on Comparative Electoral Research</style></secondary-title></titles><keywords><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">exit-poll</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">missing data</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">non-response</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">pre-electoral survey</style></keyword></keywords><dates><year><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">2011</style></year></dates><urls><related-urls><url><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">http://true-european-voter.eu/sites/default/files/NonRESPONSE.pdf</style></url></related-urls></urls><pub-location><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Sofia</style></pub-location><abstract><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">The problem of non-response or missing data is central for present-day social surveys. Especially important it is for pre-electoral and electoral surveys where the response rate usually is very low. The aims of this survey presentation are: i) to describe the sources of non-response; ii) to discover the reasons of non-response; iii) to summarize the methods for overcoming the problem, and iv) to give real examples from Bulgarian recent elections.  Additionally, the methods for calculating the response rate are summarised.  
The comparison is made between the response rates (RR) for different types of electoral and pre-electoral surveys, and the impact of missing data on the estimates is investigated.
Special attention is given to exit-polls where the response rate is extraordinary low. A comparative analysis is given how the non-response rates change over the past 10 years. Real data from Bulgarian municipal elections are used for this analysis. 
 The conclusion is that the problems with low RR in electoral and pre-electoral surveys remain unresolved and investigations are necessary to discover the determinants of non-response.  
</style></abstract></record><record><source-app name="Biblio" version="6.x">Drupal-Biblio</source-app><ref-type>47</ref-type><contributors><authors><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Alexia Katsanidou</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Zoe Lefkofridi</style></author></authors></contributors><titles><title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Asymmetrical Representation?   Policy Congruence Gaps in the 2009 European Parliament Election </style></title><secondary-title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">1st European Conference on Comparative Electoral Research</style></secondary-title></titles><keywords><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">European Parliament</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">issue congruence</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">representation</style></keyword></keywords><dates><year><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">2011</style></year></dates><urls><related-urls><url><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">http://true-european-voter.eu/sites/default/files/KatsanidouLefkofridi_TEV.pdf</style></url></related-urls></urls><pub-location><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Sofia, Bulgaria</style></pub-location><abstract><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">In this study, we argue and empirically demonstrate that the EP’s architecture leads to asymmetrical representation. As national parties fight EP elections and EU-level political groups legislate, ideological congruence between citizens and their representatives should be assessed at both national and EU levels. We operationalize congruence as an “one-to-one” and a “many-to-one” relationship and measure these at both levels by combining novel data sources. Based on the resulting congruence estimates, we construct an indicator measuring the gap between the levels. Our study manifests that congruence gaps exist and that they vary across EU parties and issue dimensions. </style></abstract></record><record><source-app name="Biblio" version="6.x">Drupal-Biblio</source-app><ref-type>47</ref-type><contributors><authors><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Romain Lachat</style></author></authors></contributors><titles><title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">The effects of party-issue associations on the voting decision process</style></title><secondary-title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">1st European Conference on Comparative Electoral Research</style></secondary-title></titles><keywords><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Issue ownership</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Issue voting</style></keyword></keywords><dates><year><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">2011</style></year></dates><urls><related-urls><url><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">http://true-european-voter.eu/sites/default/files/effects of party-issue associations.pdf</style></url></related-urls></urls><pub-location><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Sofia</style></pub-location><abstract><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Parties are often associated with specific issues. They can “own” an issue when they develop a reputation of competence and attention in that domain and they can strategically emphasize specific issues in their campaign. This paper suggests that these associations lead voters to weight issues differently when evaluating different political parties. An issue associated to a given party should have a stronger impact on citizens’ evaluations of that party than on the evaluation of its competitors. These hypotheses are tested in the case of the 1994 and 1998 Dutch elections. The results clearly show that the impact of issues on party evaluations varies across parties. The results further support the hypothesis that this variation is related to issue ownership. Short-term associations resulting from campaign strategies, in contrast, do not appear to influence how citizens evaluate parties.</style></abstract></record><record><source-app name="Biblio" version="6.x">Drupal-Biblio</source-app><ref-type>47</ref-type><contributors><authors><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Dani Marinova</style></author></authors></contributors><titles><title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Retrospective voting, accountability and party instability in European elections</style></title><secondary-title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">European Conference on Comparative Electoral Research</style></secondary-title></titles><dates><year><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">2011</style></year></dates><urls><related-urls><url><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">http://true-european-voter.eu/sites/default/files/ECCER_Marinova.pdf</style></url></related-urls></urls><pub-location><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Sofia, Bulgaria</style></pub-location></record><record><source-app name="Biblio" version="6.x">Drupal-Biblio</source-app><ref-type>47</ref-type><contributors><authors><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Mihail S. Mirchev</style></author></authors></contributors><titles><title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Electoral Research and Predictions in Bulgaria: Contextual and Methodological Challenges</style></title><secondary-title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">1st European Conference on Comparative Electoral Research</style></secondary-title></titles><keywords><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">brutal antidemocratization</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">close and distant periphery</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">contextual and methodological challenges</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">controlled vote</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">double effect of manipulation</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">early warning</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">elections 2011</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">electoral gaps</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Electoral research and predictions</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">eroded electoral core</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">flash-party</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">left-right democracy</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">media context</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">microdata and macrodata indicators</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">organized chaos</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">party partisans</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">party positioning</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">party trends</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">populist prevalence and domination</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">research agencies</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">research background</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">supply side</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">the convenient third</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">transition decades</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">types of research</style></keyword></keywords><dates><year><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">2011</style></year></dates><urls><web-urls><url><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">http://assa-m.com/en/indexen.php</style></url></web-urls><related-urls><url><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">http://true-european-voter.eu/sites/default/files/Electoral research and prediction in Bulgaria_Mihail Mirchev.pdf</style></url></related-urls></urls><pub-location><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Sofia</style></pub-location><abstract><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">The analysis is focused on the political situation and the research monitoring in Bulgaria. The accent is put both on microdata and the methodological challenges to really precise electoral predictons as well on macrodata and the methodology of expert assessment of structural and contextual impact.

The analysis is build on the research experience, used variables and thesaurus and the data base of ASSA-M and some of the other well-known research agencies in Bulgaria. It starts with the history of sociology in Bulgaria, the research background of electoral studies and monitoring, as well as the research profile of my agency ASSA-М (www.assa-m.com). A detailed analysis of both presidental and local elections, conducted a month ago, is also presented. It is the base on which five electoral phenomena, which pose significant methodological challenges, are outlined.

Firstly, the main political parties trends and their transformation from classic left-right division to populist domination, up to brutal forms of one-leader-centured and one-party domination are presented and analyzed – particularly, the classic left and right since the 90’s and their current state of art, typical flash party since 2001 and the domination of populist-right-party since 2009.   

Secondly, three political Transition Decades are distinguished. The First TD (1990-2000) – development of real democracy of civil rights and pluralism of western type: left-right political democracy, two main parties in a two poles system, as well as an abundance of small parties in the center, in the left and in the right; The Second TD (2001-2010) – transition to populist-party domination, the first was flash-party and the second is one-leader-centered-party; The Third TD (2010-2020?) – transition to one-party-domination with activity toward a new dictatorship regime. It is outlined that the negative political transformation in Bulgaria should be taken as an Early Warning of a common risky process in the EU as a whole.

Thirdly, a detailed description and analysis of the used system of devices of “controlled vote” as an extraordinarily dangerous antidemocratic practice is also provided. The phenomena of controlled vote is a significant methodological challenge for the precise predictions of the electoral results. The “double effect” technique and the technique of the “the convenient third” are presented.

Fourthly, the increasing instability of the electoral groups is the next methodological challenge. We are facing the question: how to upgrade the indicators and filters? This instability has two sides: the destabilization and disentangling of the old political parties’ cores and the “floating” peripheries, which become simultaineously more and more massive and devided in two separate parts: close and distant.

Fifthly, another form of the increasing instability is the spread of the electoral groups which make their final decision who to vote for in the last days before the elections. The main reasons for that are the spread of the entropy of ideological party identity and the accumulation of frustration from the policy making of all big ruling parties.   
</style></abstract></record><record><source-app name="Biblio" version="6.x">Drupal-Biblio</source-app><ref-type>47</ref-type><contributors><authors><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Lluis Orriols</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Laia Balcells</style></author></authors></contributors><titles><title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Party polarization and spatial voting</style></title><secondary-title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">1st European Conference on Comparative Electoral Research</style></secondary-title></titles><dates><year><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">2011</style></year></dates><urls><related-urls><url><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">http://true-european-voter.eu/sites/default/files/Orriols & Balcells.pdf</style></url></related-urls></urls><pub-location><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Sofia, Bulgary</style></pub-location><abstract><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">In this article, we examine which political issues are considered as the most important ones by
the Spanish electorate when they cast their vote. Although there are a broad variety of potential
relevant political issues, Spanish voters are forced to summarize them in just one vote. Thus,
they need to prioritize some issues over others. The aim of this article is precisely to study which
issues end up to be more important when the Spanish electorate decide their vote and why some
issues become more influential than others. Our hypothesis is that voters weight more those
issues in which parties are more polarized. On the one hand, alternatives are clearer to voters in
these cases, as parties are more easily distinguished from each other. On the other hand, when
parties do not differ much in some issue, it is somehow deactivated from the voter’s range of
choice. This hypothesis is tested at the individual and at the aggregate level. We combine survey
data with data from the Comparative Party Manifesto project. We compare results in the Basque
Country, Catalonia and the rest of Spain.</style></abstract></record><record><source-app name="Biblio" version="6.x">Drupal-Biblio</source-app><ref-type>47</ref-type><contributors><authors><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Santiago Pérez-Nievas</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Teresa Mata-López</style></author></authors></contributors><titles><title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">National identity and attitudes towards the EU</style></title><secondary-title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%"> 1st European Conference on Comparative Electoral Research</style></secondary-title></titles><keywords><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">European Integration</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">exclusive national identity</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">national identity</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">perceptions on benefit.</style></keyword></keywords><dates><year><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">2011</style></year></dates><urls><related-urls><url><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">http://true-european-voter.eu/sites/default/files/National Identity & the EU_PerezNievas & Mata.pdf</style></url></related-urls></urls><pub-location><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">University of National and World Economy, Sofia (Bulgaria) </style></pub-location><abstract><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Our paper will focus on the effects of group identity, mainly national and subnational identities, on attitudes towards European Integration.Most early studies explained preferences over European Integration in terms of its economic consequences, whether these were focused on individual attributes or economic perceptions (on individual as well as group utility). In the last decade, however, there is growing literature that argues that citizen preferences on European integration might be, notwithstanding economic determinants, more importantly driven by group attachments, by the loyalties, values, and norms that define who a person is. This more recent literature has focused mainly on the effect of national identity on preferences over European integration and, though in most of these studies national identity is found to be a powerful predictor, there are contradictory results on whether its net effect is positive or negative. Drawing in the previous literature and using a comparative method, our paper will try to address some of the following research questions: 

Under what conditions does national identity have a positive –or negative- effect on preferences over European integration? Drawing on the concept of double allegiance (De Vries y van Kersbergen 2007) we will examine how perceptions on benefit (economic or otherwise) of the country’s membership of the EU affect the relationship between national identity and attitudes towards the EU. Alternatively, other lines of research put a greater emphasis on perceptions of multiculturalism and whether national identity is perceived in exclusive or inclusive terms (Hooghe and Marks 2005). But as happens with the national identity, does perceptions on benefit (economic or otherwise) of the country’s membership of the EU affects the relationship between having an exclusive national identity and attitudes towards the EU.  We also want to know if the context plays any roll in these relationships. preferences on European integration. 
</style></abstract></record><record><source-app name="Biblio" version="6.x">Drupal-Biblio</source-app><ref-type>47</ref-type><contributors><authors><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Alberto Sanz</style></author></authors></contributors><titles><title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Party Supply Matters: an Alternative Explanation of Vote Switching  and Differential Abstention in European Elections. </style></title><secondary-title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">1st European Conference on Comparative Electoral Research</style></secondary-title></titles><keywords><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">effective party supply</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">European Parliament elections</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">issue dimensions</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">second order elections</style></keyword></keywords><dates><year><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">2011</style></year></dates><urls><related-urls><url><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">http://true-european-voter.eu/sites/default/files/A_Sanz_26_08_2011_sofia_conference.pdf</style></url></related-urls></urls><pub-location><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Sofia, Bulgaria</style></pub-location><abstract><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">This paper shows that the mechanisms proposed by traditional demand side Second Order Elections theory are conditional to country specific party supply. On the empirical side, it evidences that party supply is -by itself- a better predictor of switch vote and differential abstention than traditional demand side SOE theory factors. More importantly, the paper shows that the interplay between the demand and supply sides provides the best understanding of the electoral patterns of switch vote and differential abstention characteristics of EE. The paper also advances in conceptualization and measurement of the effective party supply by considering not only the Effective number of parliamentary parties (ENPP), but also the issue dimensionality of each political system.</style></abstract></record><record><source-app name="Biblio" version="6.x">Drupal-Biblio</source-app><ref-type>47</ref-type><contributors><authors><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Schakel, Arjan H.</style></author></authors></contributors><titles><title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Ideal Type Second-Order Elections? Regional Elections in Six Central and Eastern European Countries</style></title><secondary-title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">1st European Conference on Comparative Electoral Research</style></secondary-title></titles><keywords><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Eastern Europe</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">regional election</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">second-order election</style></keyword></keywords><dates><year><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">2011</style></year></dates><urls><related-urls><url><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">http://true-european-voter.eu/sites/default/files/Paper_1stECCERconference_Sofia_AH Schakel.pdf</style></url></related-urls></urls><pub-location><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">University of National and World Economy, Sofia, Bulgaria</style></pub-location><abstract><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">The theory on second-order elections state that when voters do not care about elections, they tend to turn out less and they tend to support opposition, regional and new parties to the detriment of government parties. However, the theory does not spell out under what conditions we may expect greater or smaller vote share losses for government parties nor does it predict when voters tend to support opposition, new or regional parties when they decide not to support the government party. As regional elections in Eastern Europe can be described as ‘typical’ second-order elections, they provide a good basis to delve into this question. This paper analyzes second-order effects for regional elections in Croatia, the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Romania and Slovakia, and finds thatthe extent of second-order effects relates to the difference in turnout between regional and national elections and the state of the economy at the time of the regional election rather than to the placement of the regional election in the national election cycle as is claimed by the second-order election model. </style></abstract></record><record><source-app name="Biblio" version="6.x">Drupal-Biblio</source-app><ref-type>47</ref-type><contributors><authors><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Selb, Peter</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Munzert, Simon</style></author></authors></contributors><titles><title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Voter overrepresentation, vote misreporting and turnout bias in postelection surveys</style></title><secondary-title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">1st European Conference on Comparative Electoral Research</style></secondary-title></titles><dates><year><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">2011</style></year><pub-dates><date><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">11/2011</style></date></pub-dates></dates><urls><related-urls><url><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">http://true-european-voter.eu/sites/default/files/overreporting_cms_wp.pdf</style></url></related-urls></urls><pub-location><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Sofia</style></pub-location><abstract><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Figures from postelection surveys often grossly overestimate election turnout. Two distinct phenomena are responsible for this gap: overrepresentation of actual voters and vote misreporting by actual nonvoters among survey respondents. Many previous accounts of turnout bias are inconclusive in that they fail to separate between the two. In this paper, we formally decompose turnout bias in postelection surveys into its constituent parts, assess their empirical prevalence and heterogeneity using an extensive collection of 47 vote validation studies (VVS), and employ meta regression techniques to account for cross-study differences. Our results indicate that both election and survey characteristics differentially affect the components of turnout bias. Among other findings, higher actual voter participation turns out to positively related to misreporting among nonvoters, but to decrease voter overrepresentation. Contrariwise, increasing survey response rates are demonstrated to reduce misreporting among nonvoters, but to exacerbate voter overrepresentation in survey samples. To validate, we predict bias components and compound turnout bias in ‘fresh’ postelection surveys for which VVS data are unavailable. We conclude with a discussion of the threats and potentials of our findings for survey-based comparative electoral research.</style></abstract></record><record><source-app name="Biblio" version="6.x">Drupal-Biblio</source-app><ref-type>47</ref-type><contributors><authors><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Yulia Shapovalova</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Lilia Raycheva</style></author></authors></contributors><titles><title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Media Projection of the Local Elections After 1989 (Burgas Municipality – Bulgaria)</style></title><secondary-title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">1st European Conference on Comparative Electoral Research</style></secondary-title></titles><keywords><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">canvassing</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">local elections</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">local media</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">professional standards</style></keyword></keywords><dates><year><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">2011</style></year></dates><pub-location><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Sofia, Bulgaria</style></pub-location><abstract><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Yulia Shapovalova
Burgas Free University
Assoc. Prof. Dr. Lilia Raycheva
St Kliment Ohridski University of Sofia

MEDIA PROJECTION OF LOCAL ELECTIONS AFTER 1989
(BURGAS MUNICIPALITY – BULGARIA)

The past twenty years have witnessed five presidential (1992, 1996, 2001, 2006, and 2001), seven parliamentary (1990, 1991, 1994, 1997, 2001, 2005, and 2009), six local (1991, 1995, 1999, 2003, 2007, and 2011), two European parliamentary elections (2007 and 2009), and the appointment of ten Governments in Bulgaria. 
Local elections, and especially those carried out in the Burgas Municipality, are the subject of the present research paper. The changes in the media environment are traced out comparatively in this research, immediately prior to the elections in the years 1991, 1995, 1999, 2003, 2007, and 2011.
At the beginning and the end of that period, in 1991 and 2011 respectively, local elections coincided with national elections. In 1991, local authorities and a national Parliament were elected simultaneously. In 2011 there will be concurrent elections for local authorities and a President. 
The present work was designed to focus on four research questions:
-	what was the media impact on electoral attitudes during all local elections in the Burgas Municipality after 1989;
-	did the media merge with the local authorities and how that had reflected on the objectivity of information;
-	how transparent the election campaigns were, including their funding; and
-	what forms of political advertising was used by the candidates.
The analysis of the set problems unfolds in the domain of:
-	theoretical analysis relating to pre-election authorities-media interrelations (in sociological, politological and linguistic terms;
-	dynamics in legislative and regulatory framework of local elections (1989-2011) and media self-regulation.
Methodologically, the research relies on:
-	observation, comparison and analysis of the election returns (based on the archives of the Municipal Electoral Committees (State Archives – Burgas), as well as on the official web page of the Central Electoral Committee for Local Elections);
-	analysis of the contents of different media types (the press, radio, TV, online), including the statements of candidates for local authorities;
-	opinion polls carried out among journalists, leaders of party and political headquarters, candidates for local authorities.
The results from the comparative analysis of the six local elections for the Burgas Municipality in the period 1989-2011 outline their media projection and trends in the dynamics of the authorities-media interrelations in the process of shaping out an informed choice of the electorate.
</style></abstract></record><record><source-app name="Biblio" version="6.x">Drupal-Biblio</source-app><ref-type>47</ref-type><contributors><authors><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Lorenzo De Sio</style></author><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Mark Franklin</style></author></authors></contributors><titles><title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Generic variable analysis: climbing the ladder of generality with social science data</style></title><secondary-title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">ECCER</style></secondary-title></titles><keywords><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Generic concepts</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">HLM</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">ladder of generality</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">party support</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">vote propensity</style></keyword></keywords><dates><year><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Submitted</style></year></dates><urls><related-urls><url><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">http://true-european-voter.eu/sites/default/files/DeSio and Franklin.pdf</style></url></related-urls></urls><pub-location><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Sofia</style></pub-location><abstract><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">This paper attempts to provide a theoretical basis for the use of a set of procedures associated with the use of stacked datasets in the analysis of so-called “propensity to vote” (PTV) questions asked in increasing numbers of election surveys worldwide. These procedures make possible a shift in the conceptual level at which we think about party support, from the level of specific parties to the level of parties in general. The paper considers the the trade-offs involved in choosing a level of analysis and level of conceptualization appropriate to a particular research question. We will argue that these trade-offs should be explicitly considered by researchers who should not routinely settle on the default strategy of analyzing data at the level at which it was collected.</style></abstract></record><record><source-app name="Biblio" version="6.x">Drupal-Biblio</source-app><ref-type>47</ref-type><contributors><authors><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Laura Sudulich</style></author></authors></contributors><titles><title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Surveying the elite. A critical evaluation of the 2009 European Election Candidate Study</style></title><secondary-title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">1st European Conference on Comparative Electoral Research</style></secondary-title></titles><dates><year><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">2011</style></year></dates><urls><related-urls><url><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">http://true-european-voter.eu/sites/default/files/Sudulich_Nov26.pdf</style></url></related-urls></urls><pub-location><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Sofia</style></pub-location></record><record><source-app name="Biblio" version="6.x">Drupal-Biblio</source-app><ref-type>47</ref-type><contributors><authors><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Federico Vegetti</style></author></authors></contributors><titles><title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">When it's hard to change. Party system polarization and vote switching</style></title><secondary-title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">1st European Conference on Comparative Electoral Research</style></secondary-title></titles><dates><year><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">2011</style></year></dates><urls><related-urls><url><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">http://true-european-voter.eu/sites/default/files/Paper Sofia FV.pdf</style></url></related-urls></urls><pub-location><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Sofia</style></pub-location><abstract><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">This paper examines the effect of party system polarization on voters' volatility. In line with the image of the 'echo chamber', research on voting behavior has been showing that divergent party positions increase the amount of issue voting, for citizens care about policies only when parties offer them real alternatives. In this study I test a model where party ideological distances influence the extent to which voters are willing to switch from their previous choice. Based on spatial theory of voting behavior, I expect voters to be more likely to change their preference the more the options are ideologically similar, and to be more prone to stand pat on one single option the more the alternatives are different. Differently from previous research, where polarization is taken into account as a mediator for the effect of policy preferences on party evaluations, the focus of this paper is rather the direct effect of party distances on voting behavior over time. In order to assure enough contextual variation, the hypotheses derived from the theoretical model are tested at the individual level using several waves of the Dutch National Election Study.</style></abstract></record><record><source-app name="Biblio" version="6.x">Drupal-Biblio</source-app><ref-type>47</ref-type><contributors><authors><author><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Carla Xena</style></author></authors></contributors><titles><title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Elections and the Mobilisation of Political Efficacy</style></title><secondary-title><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">1st European Conference on Comparative Electoral Research</style></secondary-title></titles><keywords><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">elections</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">expectations</style></keyword><keyword><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">political efficacy</style></keyword></keywords><dates><year><style  face="normal" font="default" size="100%">2011</style></year></dates><urls><related-urls><url><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">http://true-european-voter.eu/sites/default/files/Elections and the Mobilisation of Political Efficacy_Carla Xena.pdf</style></url></related-urls></urls><pub-location><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Sofia</style></pub-location><abstract><style face="normal" font="default" size="100%">Elections are the most salient participatory process in representative democracy. They offer a precious opportunity for citizens to feel they can influence the political process. Yet, not much attention has been paid to the role of elections and the particular circumstances under these are held in shaping perceptions of influence on politics.  This paper seeks to assess whether and to what extent the electoral context of the United Kingdom 2010 contest fostered the feeling among citizens that they were an active part of the political process. The findings suggest that elections per se do not enhance feelings of system’s responsiveness to individual’s actions but neither does support for winning or losing parties. On the contrary, political efficacy seems to behave differently among supporters of the three main parties depending on expectations about their success but also, contingent upon past electoral outcomes.</style></abstract></record></records></xml>
