Learning the Economic Vote at Local Elections: Case of Lithuania, 1995-2011

This paper argues that economic voting is not limited to the first-order elections and also can be observed in the local elections (usually considered as second-order). Though local governments do not have power to shape the macro-economic policy of the state, they may have some instruments to influence the well-being of their regions. Moreover, voters may perceive them as accountable for the worsening/improving state of economy in the region and punish/reward (vote for/against) them in local elections on basis of the economic trends. Lithuania appears to be a quite interesting case to test these theoretical arguments. Party identification and cleavages are quite weak here: therefore economic voting can be expected to provide at least some explanation of voting (it should not be shadowed by other social factors). Six local elections (to municipal councils) were held in Lithuania since the transition to democracy: first ones in 1995 and last ones in 2011. While controlling for the other important political-contextual factors this paper strives to compare the impact of economic voting at Lithuania’s municipal elections across the time (in five separate periods). Results of empirical analysis reveal that Lithuanians are learning the economic vote, unemployment being more significant (as a factor explaining changes in votes for the dominant parties in the municipal councils) in more recent period than in the first several elections. Referendum effect is also observed: parties that belong to the national government parties are punished more in the times of economic downturn.